Monday's Missed Likely Voter Presidential Poll
A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.
The margin between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but demonstrates a notable turn-around from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For example:
- McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
- Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
- Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
- Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
- Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.